The National Intelligence Estimate's conclusion that Iran "halted its nuclear weapons" program in the fall of 2003 sent American-Jewish organizations into a nuclear meltdown of their own. In recent years the largest organizations invested enormous time and energy in the Iran issue. They insisted, quite rightly, that a nuclear bomb in the arsenal of a Muslim theocracy that seems lacking in rhetorical, historical, and theological constraints was a danger not only to Israel but to the entire world.

Some of this advocacy was overblown, and some groups and individuals seemed too willing to promote a military solution before diplomatic measures were exhausted. The NIE's findings drastically lowered the chances of such an action. That news was welcomed by those who saw Iran as another Iraq-in-the-making.

And yet by removing the military option, the NIE estimate makes the Iran situation less stable than ever. Nations like Russia and China are able to thumb their nose at attempts to apply economic pressure on Iran. A restless world will turn its attention elsewhere, redirecting the scrutiny that may well have given Iran pause in the first place. And many experts say it wouldn't take much for Iran to fire up its weapons development, even if for now they have decided to take a timeout.

Jewish groups took a variety of rhetorical tacks since the report's release: Discredit the spy agencies. Blame it on the bureaucrats. Pin it on an internal feud between Vice President Cheney and — well, just about everybody else.

Now they need to return to the business of public advocacy, with an emphasis on the threat that Iran continues to present to Israel and Mideast stability. For a while, some activists risked their own credibility by advocating a war that could be avoided. But there is a risk too in reading the NIE report as an "all clear" signal on Iran. A time-out is an opportunity to review strategy, not to close one's eyes.