2006 New Jersey Press Association General Excellence Award Winner![]() |
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No room for progress in the House of Saud
Beyond the atmospherics of the Annapolis, Md., conference and the carefully orchestrated set of speeches, two very weak political leaders, Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas, agreed to spend time over the next 14 months trying to reach a comprehensive peace settlement. That is something that no previous Israeli or Palestinian leaders have accomplished despite Madrid, Oslo, Camp David, and Taba. They also gave President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice a foreign policy initiative that would not produce any immediate backlash; this alone counts as a major accomplishment. Most realistic observers, however, believe that nothing of consequence was achieved in Annapolis. In fact, there may well be a significant price extracted and expected due to the Saudis' participation. As has been clear for many years, the Saudi royal family has a very cuddly relationship with the Bush families and with Vice President Cheney. Could Bush/Cheney have cashed in their chits with the Saudi royal family to get them to come? This seems, however, to be an especially high card to have played at this early stage of a negotiation process. It is more likely that the Saudis came to Annapolis with an explicit agenda and specific demands, about which both the American people and the Israelis have yet to learn. The Saudis are concerned about oil prices, Iran, and terrorism. They also do not want and will not tolerate any interference from the international community regarding their internal affairs or "religious” practices regardless of how they affect Saudi political behavior. At Annapolis, the Saudis would not shake hands with the Israelis, or even recognize the existence of a Jewish state. At the same time, the Saudis covered up and would not even comment on the reports of a Saudi judge's barbaric punishment of a gang rape victim. The U.S. government and other interested parties tolerated and ignored the absurd snubbing of Israel without a word. Given the pressure exerted to obtain Saudi participation in the meeting, the Kingdom's system of justice also received a political pass from the West as well. After Annapolis, the Saudis did throw a bone to the oil-consuming West in general and to the Bush Administration in particular when it became clear that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would be increasing oil production, thus slowing down dramatically the march to $100-a-barrel for crude oil. As Congress appeared ready to pass a major energy bill raising automobile efficiency levels, the Saudis hoped to give the Bush administration added incentive not to encourage an increase in U.S. oil refining, and perhaps scuttle the imposition of improved gas efficiency standards. All of these Saudi maneuvers were somewhat trivial for King Abdullah next to his genuine concern about Iran's increasing threat in the Gulf, both on an economic as well as on the nuclear/terrorist level. While the Iranian five-ton elephant was not in the room, much of the conversations directly or indirectly concerned Iran. It is here and not in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process that the Saudis have their greatest interest. Given the finite nature of petroleum, the Saudis always have coveted Iraq's oil reserves. They fear a takeover of Iraqi oil fields by Iran or their radical Islamic surrogates, as much as they fear a potential lyintroduction of nuclear weapons. Here, too, the United States and the other major conference voices danced around a potentially nuclear Iran. Equally important, they permitted the Saudis to get away without offering an explicit commitment to fight terrorism and the radical Islamic forces fueling the confrontation between Iran and the West. The Saudis were very happy to demand that the West protect the region from going nuclear. With the Saudis running their own agenda at Annapolis and with the Bush administration and the dependent West not willing to call them on it, where does that leave Israel? That the politically weak Prime Minister Olmert returned home with no loss was an accomplishment. On the plus side, Iran was discussed in Washington both in the White House and at the Pentagon. On the negative side, being dissed again by the Saudis and hearing no public outcry was hurtful but nothing new. Nevertheless, Israelis went home knowing that once again, despite efforts to the contrary, the olive oil burning in their hanukkiot can continue to glow brightly. |
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