November 5, 2008
WASHINGTON — Barack Obama emerges from a maelstrom into a vacuum.
The U.S. senator from Illinois has survived the longest and roughest election season in memory to assume control of a free world in free fall: a collapsing economy, a resurgent Iran, an obstreperous Russia.
“He’s going to have his hands full with a recession, a housing crisis, Wall Street, domestic legislation, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran,” said David Makovsky, a senior analyst with the Washington Center for Near East Policy.
No matter who emerged victorious, he would have to re-accrue the political capital squandered by President Bush in his last years of office, said Steven Spiegel, a political scientist at UCLA. Obama, however, made a better case than Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), his Republican rival, Spiegel said.
“What Obama is really offering is the olive branch in one hand, and the other is a fist,” he said.
Conservatives and some Republicans tried to use Obama’s exotic background against him, particularly in the Jewish community. But in the end, voters went with the son of a woman from a small Kansas town and a nominally Muslim father from the Kenyan hills — a choice that some observers say will be likelier to repair relations with an international community alienated by a president who once famously said nations either stand with or against the United States.
“Obama can say, ‘I’m a different person with a different approach. We’re going to work with you on global warming, family planning. We’re going to be broader in our approach. We’re not looking for fights with Russia. We have a much more nuanced policy,’” Spiegel said.
Possibility of possibility
M.J. Rosenberg, the legislative director of the Israel Policy Forum, which strongly favors an increased U.S. role in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiating process, said Obama’s unlikely path to the presidency was a game-changer in terms of foreign policy.
“He was elected to the Senate four years ago, he defeated Hillary Clinton, he defeated John McCain, he’s African-American. Because it’s a transformational presidency, he can do things other presidents might not have been able to do,” Rosenberg said.
It is precisely this possibility of possibility that excites or worries Jewish political activists, depending on their political stripes. Obama’s Jewish backers argue that his victory will provide a significant boost in U.S. credibility and influence that can be used to increase international pressure on Iran and support for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Detractors, on the other hand, have predicted that in his desire to win international respect, Obama could end up pressuring Israel and backing away from confrontation with Iran.
What’s clear, experts say, is that as a new president, Obama faces an almost unprecedented challenge. Yoram Peri, a Tel Aviv University political scientist on sabbatical at American University in Washington, described a world facing fundamental historic changes.
“I’m thinking of periods such as after the Second World War, when the superpowers devised a new world, or the Vienna Congress” of 1814-15, which reconfigured Europe. “You need a complicated, comprehensive approach to the new situation.”
Don’t worry too much about Obama’s being “tested” as a young, inexperienced president, as the McCain campaign had charged, said Yitzhak Reiter, a Hebrew University professor who just published War, Peace and International Relations in Islam.
“Being an Israeli, I know that whenever a radical group has a plan in mind and are able to carry it out, they carry it out,” he said. “If they were able to challenge America, they would have done it by now.”
The most serious challenge, Peri said, is the potential of an Iran with nuclear weapons — a possibility that Israel believes could occur within two years.
“It will totally change the balance of power in the Middle East, not just because Iran might use the bomb, but because conventional power has been defined by nonconventional power, the fear that Israel has a nuclear capability,” he said. With a nuclear Iran, “assuming Hizbullah or Syria attacks Israel, Israel will be deterred from deterring them.”
The same goes for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf states that fear Iranian hegemony. “The whole balance of power in the conventional sphere changes,” Peri said.
Obama’s likely path may be determined by those who advise him, Peri said, noting the preponderance of Clinton administration veterans who favor diplomatic engagement as the best path for ensuring Israel’s security. For example, in recent months, former U.S. Middle East negotiator Dennis Ross has emerged as Obama’s senior adviser on Israel and Iran, and his top staffer on Jewish issues has been another Clinton administration veteran, Daniel Shapiro.
“The people I know who are surrounding Obama have a more progressive view of the Middle East, want to see a peace between Israel and Palestinians. They see the differences in the Arab world and understand you have to take into account Arab interests vis-a-vis Iran,” Peri said.
Ross argues that the United States needs to play a more consistent and involved role in Israeli-Palestinian talks. But he also has ruled out the establishment of any “artificial” timelines for establishing a Palestinian state. On Iran, Ross has echoed Obama in arguing that the United States needs to increase its level of diplomatic engagement with Tehran — but says such an approach must be coupled with tougher sanctions in order to block Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Mitchell Bard, the director of the American Israel Cooperative Enterprise and the author of Will Israel Survive?, was heartened by the Obama campaign’s stated intention to make Iran a priority in its first months. “He has to make some decisions early on to create some action to prevent Iran from getting to the point of no return,” Bard said.
He said Obama’s ability, proven during his campaign, to build alliances across the political spectrum would serve him well.
“He has the personal chemistry, the potential for building relationships,” Bard said, noting that Bush’s first term was well served by the personal relationship he developed with Tony Blair, the British prime minister at the time, despite policy differences.
Spiegel said Obama’s willingness to engage diplomatically suggests he will succeed, where the Bush administration ran into a wall, in building an international alliance to isolate Iran.
“Obama starts out popular, people want to establish good relations; it’s going to be much easier to sell sanctions,” he said.
The Chosen: Jewish members in the 111th U.S. Congress
The following is a list of the 44 Jewish members —13 senators and 31 representatives — who will serve in the 111th U.S. Congress that convenes in January:
U.S. Senate
Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.)
Benjamin Cardin (D-Md.)
Norm Coleman (R-Minn.)**
Russ Feingold (D-Wisc.)
Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.)
Herb Kohl (D-Wisc.)
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ)**
Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.)
Carl Levin (D-Mich.)**
Bernard Sanders (I-Vt.)
Charles Schumer (D-NY)
Arlen Specter (R-Pa.)
Ron Wyden (D-Ore.)
House of Representatives
Gary Ackerman (D-NY)
John Adler (D-NJ)*
Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.)
Howard Berman (D-Calif.)
Eric Cantor (R-Va.)
Stephen Cohen (D-Tenn.)
Susan Davis (D-Calif.)
Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.)
Eliot Engel (D-NY)
Bob Filner (D-Calif.)
Barney Frank (D-Mass.)
Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.)
Jane Harman (D-Calif.)
Paul Hodes (D-N.H.)
Steve Israel (D-N.Y.)
Steve Kagen (D-Wisc.)
Ron Klein (D-Fla.)
Sander Levin (D-Mich.)
Nita Lowey (D-NY)
Jerrold Nadler (D-NY)
Jared Polis (D-Colo.)*
Steve Rothman (D-NJ)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.)
Allyson Schwartz (D-Pa.)
Adam Schiff (D-Calif.)
Brad Sherman (D-Calif.)
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.)
Henry Waxman (D-Calif.)
Anthony Weiner (D-NY)
Robert Wexler (D-Fla.)
John Yarmuth (D-Ky.)
* Elected to Congress for the first time
** Senators who were reelected (Coleman defeated Democratic challenger Al Franken in Minnesota by 571 votes, but a recount is expected. Franken also is Jewish, leaving 13 Jewish senators regardless of who emerges as the winner.)
— JTA
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