NJJN Online Commentary Feature 102507

Israel at 60: Heard any good news lately?

As Israel approaches its 60th anniversary on May 15, 2008, it is enjoying the best of times, both in its conflict with the Palestinians and the Arab world and, incidentally, domestically.

That does not mean peace is around the corner. Peace will continue to elude Israel for the foreseeable future. Hershel ShanksRegardless of what President Bush and his secretary of state do or do not do, the result will not be a resolution of the conflict. Whether the Saudis will attend the Middle East conference the United States has announced is an interesting question. The damage that can be done by raising expectations from this conference too high is also something to be considered. But these are passing matters. A final peace agreement between the Palestinians and Israel is simply not in the cards in the foreseeable future.

But a peace agreement is not the aim of the conference. Like much diplomacy, this conference is part of an effort to manage a conflict, not resolve it. Diplomacy is a process, not a destination. In this situation, the aim is not a resolution of the conflict, but keeping a lid on it, containing the conflict at a low level, easing matters for both sides, especially for the bumbling Palestinians. That may not be what the politicians — er, diplomats — say, but that is what they know in their hearts.

In that context, things are just fine for Israel, especially if you look at the last 60 years that began with five Arab armies converging on the nascent state. Or just before the 1967 Six-Day War with Egypt, Jordan, and Syria attacking in an effort to destroy it. Or the 1973 Yom Kippur with an Egyptian army that could have invaded Israel but for its own failure to follow up on initial victory. Or in 1991 with Iraq's Saddam Hussein firing rockets on Tel Aviv. Or even the summer of 2006 with its standoff war with Hizbullah in Lebanon.

Let me count the ways. First, of course, Israel is at peace with the most powerful country in the Arab world, Egypt. It is also at peace with the Arab country on its longest border, Jordan.

Syria refuses to engage in peace negotiations until Israel first agrees to give up the Golan Heights; only then will Syria talk. In the meantime, the Golan Heights-Syrian border, a bare 25 miles from Damascus, remains, as it has for 40 years, peaceful, almost without incident; and the Israeli residents of the Golan Heights continue to live their bucolic life unmolested.

Saudi Arabia has never been a serious military threat, but even its belligerence has softened somewhat recently with a proposal that the Arab states would recognize Israel if she relinquished the West Bank.

Say what you will about the war in Iraq, but that country is unlikely to be raining down rockets on Israel any time soon.

And Lebanon. Hizbullah is justifiably proud of its standoff with the Israel Defense Forces last summer. But at the same time it was a victory, it was a devastating defeat for Lebanon (yes, and for Hizbullah). They never intended to start a war with Israel, they say, only to kidnap a couple of Israeli soldiers. The result, painful as it was to Israel, is unlikely to encourage Hizbullah to try again. Another “victory“ like that they do not need — and they know it, although they have rearmed after the 34-day war and now boast that they have rockets capable of hitting Tel Aviv. However, not a single rocket has been fired into Israel since the end of the war. And Lebanon itself remains on the brink of civil war.

That leaves the non-Arab state of Iran, which Israel sees as the most serious threat. That is probably true. But, still, an attack by Iran would be so devastating to the entire world (including Iran) that it is unlikely to occur — because Iran knows this (Ahmadinejad's rhetoric to the contrary notwithstanding).

Yes, the Palestinians are still a problem. In a recent poll 70 percent of the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza said that suicide bombings are often or sometimes justified. Terrorism is surely a threat. But the checkpoints and the fence the Palestinians hate so much have done much to reduce terrorism to a bare minimum. For the moment, Israel even has the help of Abu Mazen on the West Bank. Terrorism today is perhaps less a threat in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem than it is in New York, London, Madrid, Paris, Istanbul, etc. And El Al is certainly the safest airline around.

This is not peace. There are still serious dangers and serious threats. Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas or its terrorist allies, is still in captivity. So are Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, kidnapped by Hizbullah. Hopefully all three are alive and will be released safely. True, rockets from Gaza are still being fired on Sderot (for which Hamas and Islamic Jihad pay dearly). I'm sure my piece of journalism would not be received well in Sderot — and understandably so.

But we are talking about comparative conditions. Things could be better, but they are still better than they've ever been.

Could the situation change? Of course. But walk the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Yes, the people complain. The president resigned in a sex scandal. Olmert's approval rating is in the toilet. But the stock market is generally up, as is the economy. And, for all the complaints and all the insecurity, life goes on largely undisturbed. It's mostly beautiful.

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