The Jewish vote won't make any difference at Saturday's Republican straw poll in Ames, Iowa. But if past years are any indication, the Ames event will help weed out the field of nine white guys, a quarter of whom Republican voters say they don't really care for. Will the last man standing have any appeal to the 70 percent to 80 percent of Jews who tend to vote Democratic?

Fewer than 25,000 Republicans are expected to pay $35 each to listen to speeches and vote. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has spent more time and money campaigning in Iowa than almost all the others combined, is expected to be an easy winner — especially since Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson won't be there. Thompson is tied for second in Iowa with Giuliani despite not being an official candidate; his recent fund-raising numbers fell far short of expectations.

Their absence is an opportunity for one or more of the second-tier candidates to break through, particularly former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who is tied with McCain.

Huckabee, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, and Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado are the most conservative contenders. All stress their strong religious beliefs and say they don't believe in evolution, and are favorites of the party's influential Christian conservative wing. Their goal is to overtake the fading war hero from Arizona.

McCain, despite his solid conservative voting record, is anathema to many on the Religious Right for his views on campaign finance and immigration, as well as derisive comments about some of its leaders. He has been pandering to that crowd so zealously that it has robbed him of the straight-talking maverick reputation that once made him so popular.

In a recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll, "none of the above" came in first. Nearly a quarter of Republicans expressed little enthusiasm for any of their party's contenders. In the short term that translates into anemic fund-raising; the long-term impact is uninspired voters will stay home.

Meanwhile, polls show Democratic voters are much more satisfied with their choices, and money is flowing in.

It's not a good time for Jewish Republicans. Their party relies on hard-line pro-Israel declarations to appeal for Jewish support because they know that once attention moves on to other issues — from war in Iraq to prayer in schools — they're in trouble.

The Republican Jewish Coalition squandered millions on a failed campaign to paint Democrats as unreliable friends of Israel, if not actually hostile. Jews have consistently given Democrats between 70 percent and 80 percent of their votes, and 2008 is shaping up as more of the same.

Candidates in both parties will keep declaring their avid support for Israel because they know it will get them a hechsher from groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a signal to pro-Israel political action committees about where to send money. But that won't be enough to win many Jewish votes, particularly for Republicans.

Israel enjoys bipartisan support among candidates. Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Dennis Kucinich say things that rankle Israel's supporters, but neither will be on a ticket.

Religion, however, is playing a big role, and for a change none of the candidates is touting Jewish roots — unless New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg decides to run as an independent. He's got the money and the ambition, but history is against him. No third-party candidate has ever won the presidency.

In his mayoral reelection campaign in 1997, when Giuliani beat Ruth Messinger, a Jewish Democrat, he received perhaps 75 percent of the Jewish vote. But Giuliani is testing the theory that a socially moderate Republican can make it through the caucuses and primaries, where the base demands fealty to the Three G's: guns, God, and gays.

Romney has accused Giuliani of being out of step with the GOP because he's "pro-choice and pro-gay marriage and anti-gun." That's a strange accusation from someone who has been on both sides of such issues as abortion, sex education, stem-cell research, the environment, gay marriage, and gun control.

Brownback repeatedly declares that his No. 1 issue is outlawing abortion, and that anyone he appoints to the Supreme Court must agree to repeal Roe v. Wade.

This year's religious question is, who is Christian enough? James Dobson, the influential founder of Focus on the Family, told U.S. News & World Report that he doubted Thompson was really a Christian (he later said he is "reassessing" the actor-politician) and that he wouldn't vote for McCain "under any circumstances."

But most attention has been focused on Romney's Mormonism, which many evangelicals consider more of a cult than a religion.

Muslim bashing has been popular among some candidates. Giuliani this week attacked Democrats for not using the term "Islamic terrorists" to describe the enemy in the war on terror.

Tancredo, the xenophobic anti-immigration crusader, went one further, threatening to bomb Muslim holy sites in Saudi Arabia if Islamic terrorists use nuclear weapons.

Romney was forced to eat his words after he praised Hizbullah's social welfare programs as a model for American diplomacy.

Except for Ron Paul, the GOP contenders support the war in Iraq; most Jews have consistently opposed it, and that number has been growing.

Jews care about issues like health care, education, church-state separation, privacy, Medicare and Social Security, the environment, gay rights, abortion rights, and civil liberties. In recent elections, however, Republicans have treated Jews as one-issue voters who care about — well, none of the above.