The early bird gets the undecided voter
Given the political commotion and public and cyber debates that are being held by both the Republican and Democratic parties, it is hard to believe that the actual 2008 presidential election is still 17 months away.
The first 12-15 months of the 24-month run-up to a presidential election are defined by two crucial factors. 
First, candidates engage in the obscene race to establish a financial nest egg that intimidates and eliminates opponents. Second, they seek to define the issues that will be central to the caucuses and primaries that will begin next winter. When there is no incumbent president seeking reelection, as will be the case in 2008, defining the issues becomes even more important. This is not to suggest, however, that a lame-duck president is merely a passive observer in defining the issues and the character of the campaign.
It is difficult for most Americans to accept that the issues of the November 2008 vote are being determined now, even though the head-to-head campaign will not begin until the end of the Republican convention in 15 months.
Without actual candidates, these deliberations are being shaped as much by politicos and noncandidates, including the president and the Congress, as they are by possible contenders.
For example, Democratic political gurus and astute political infighters, such as House Caucus leader Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) and Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Chuck Schumer (NY), know that opposition to the Iraq war is already the Democrats' issue in the 2008 election. Despite voices from the party's more left-leaning wing as well as from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), Democratic lawmakers, led by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (Md.), submitted an Iraq War supplemental funding bill that did not contain the benchmarks for withdrawal that the war's opponents had been calling for. Lawmakers determined there was not enough to be gained politically by engaging the White House in another unsuccessful round of passage, presidential veto, and override failure.
Opposition to the "surge" in U.S. forces and a timetable for U.S. withdrawal are already the Democrats' issue in 2008. Furthermore, the panicky voices of Republican House and Senate incumbents seeking reelection in tightly contested elections in the fall of 2008 already have begun to influence President Bush's position on the war in Iraq. Their pleadings are being heard far more distinctly than any messages the president is receiving from the Democratic Party.
Similarly, the social issues that so dominated Republican politics for most of the last two decades are rapidly fading in importance. While opposition to abortion, same-sex marriage, and stem-cell research undoubtedly will have a significant place in the Republican Party platform next summer, these issues will not dominate the stump speech of the Republican nominee regardless of who it is.
With respect to global warming, thanks in part to Al Gore's Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth, coupled with the Bush administration's opposition to the Kyoto Protocols, the Democrats have staked the publicly supported political high road on the environment agenda. To defuse this and in advance of the forthcoming G-8 summit, the administration has made some uncharacteristically conciliatory statements on reducing carbon emissions. But these recent declarations are being greeted with skepticism.
Republican hopes to gain a dominant position on a single issue in the run-up to the elections seem to rest on the president's support for the immigration reform package. Ironically, the GOP itself is seriously divided as to how far to go in supporting Bush; the Democrats, though largely supporting the bill, seem ready to let the president drag his own party along. All of this leaves presidential candidates with the ability to position themselves all across the map on immigration reform.
Finally, both parties are dancing around campaign finance and lobbying reform. Neither party in Washington wants to take action and both parties want to blame the other for Washington's failure to act. If political corruption does gain traction as a campaign issue, the party in power usually receives the blame for the need for reform.
The rhythm of presidential campaigns also helps to explain why most elections are won or lost in the battle for the less than 10 percent of voters who still are undecided on Labor Day in the actual election year. By the time campaigns get to the first week of September in the presidential election year most voters have endured a year and a half of intense posturing and already have made up their minds. The final weeks are only a battle for the still-undecided. The substance of that debate already is falling into place, months before the actual nominees' face-off.
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