by Johanna Ginsberg
NJJN Staff Writer
with Ami Eden
JTA

May 29, 2008

It’s become as much a campaign-season staple as Iowa and New Hampshire: Each election cycle Republicans predict a major shift in the Jewish vote and Democrats end up scoffing all the way to winning upward of 75 percent of that vote at the ballot box.

This year, however, something is different, at least according to politicians and activists gathered earlier this month at the annual dinner of the New York chapter of the National Jewish Democratic Council.

Many attendees — at least those who declared their support for their fellow New Yorker, Sen. Hillary Clinton — suggested that they were worried as it becomes increasingly likely that U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will be the party’s presidential candidate in November.

It’s a question being debated in New Jersey as well.

As was made clear in a front-page New York Times article May 23 about the Florida vote, some Jewish voters remain skeptical about Obama’s positions — some real, others imagined — on Israel, Iran, his former pastor, and even his religious and racial background.

Obama sought to assure Jewish voters, speaking May 22 at a synagogue in Boca Raton, Fla., where he reiterated his strong record of support for Israel, and saying his willingness to negotiate with Iranian leaders was only one part of a strategy to prevent them from obtaining nuclear weapons.

“If my policies are wrong, vote against me because my policies are wrong,” Obama told the audience at B’nai Torah Congregation, directly addressing the rumors and outright falsehoods that have dogged his campaign. “Don’t vote against me because of who I am.”

But it’s still unclear to what extent Obama can win over Clinton’s supporters come November, especially the older Jewish voters who prefer Clinton, and certainly the growing number of conservative Jewish voters who have been polling Republican.

Even the NJDC’s executive director, Ira Forman, cited polls suggesting that presumptive Republican candidate John McCain will fare much better among Jewish voters than his Republican predecessors from the past four presidential races.

Borrowing from Charles Dickens, Forman told the crowd at the NJDC event that it was the “best of times” — with Democrats poised to make “huge gains” in Congress — and the “worst of times” — citing a recent Gallup Poll showing that Obama would win 61 percent of the Jewish vote in a match-up against McCain while Clinton would take 67 percent against the presumptive Republican nominee.

Forman noted that while the poll gives both Democrats a solid majority of Jews, those figures show a drop of 15 to 20 percent of the Jewish vote going to the party as opposed to recent presidential elections.

“What does that drop of 15 to 20 percent mean?” he asked. “It means 180,000 votes in the state of Florida if we drop 20 percent. It means 35,000 votes in Ohio. God forbid New Jersey’s in play, 130,000 votes in New Jersey; 16,000 votes in the small state of Nevada; 25,000 votes in Colorado; 70,000 votes in Pennsylvania. I could go on and on.”

‘A lot of work’

Is New Jersey in play?

When Jewish Democrats went to the polls in New Jersey in February, they voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton. According to an MSNBC exit poll, 63 percent voted for Clinton, compared with 37 percent for Obama.

Little data is available asking how NJ Jews would vote in a match-up between Obama and McCain.

Forman, for one, is not concerned.

“New Jersey will not be a battleground state,” he said in an interview with NJJN last week, sounding less concerned than he had appeared a few days earlier. “Right now, looking at the numbers, whether Obama or Clinton wins, New Jersey will go easily Democratic.”

Still, he acknowledged, with so much of New York and New Jersey voting so heavily for Clinton, “We have to get out and really work for our nominee. There’s a lot of work to do.”

Forman said that a large percentage of those Jews currently supporting McCain are doing so without a clear understanding of his positions, and will come around by November.

“American Jews think he’s fairly moderate, and moderate Republicans do better among Jews than do Conservative Republicans,” said Forman. “The American-Jewish people think [McCain] is pro-choice; he’s very pro-life. American Jews think he supports separation of church and state, but he’s a creationist and wants creationism taught in our schools. When they realize this, a significant portion of Jews will say ‘Who-o-o-a.’ When you combine that with Obama’s voting record and statement on Israel, the numbers will go up.”

(During a May 2007 presidential debate, McCain said he believed in evolution; in 2005 he said that “intelligent design” should be taught in public school science classes because “all points of view should be presented.”)

Nevertheless, according to CNN-Time Election Exit Polls from 1996 and CNN Election Poll results from 2004, the percentage of Jews voting Republican has been slowly increasing, from just over 10 percent in 1992 to nearly 25 percent in 2004.

Matt Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition, hears opportunity knocking.

“I think this is a great opportunity for us to make inroads among Jewish voters,” Brooks told NJJN. “Polls show Hillary Clinton beating Barack Obama two to one among Jews. Barack Obama has a real problem in the Jewish community and among Jewish voters. And I believe a subset of Hillary Clinton voters will support John McCain.”

With regard to Jewish voters’ understanding of the issues, Brooks called Forman’s comments “smear tactics” and “a stretch” and said, “John McCain is unequivocal in his support for the separation of church and state.”

“He’s pro-environment and for stem-cell research,” said Brooks.

Although he did not comment on McCain’s position on abortion — McCain opposes abortion except in cases of rape or incest or to protect the life of the pregnant woman — Brooks said, “The reason he’s known as a maverick is because he takes positions on key issues different from those of the Republican Party.”

Coming home

Meanwhile, Obama’s supporters among NJ politicians say they aren’t worried about their candidate’s prospects in a head-to-head with McCain.

“I feel very comfortable supporting Barack Obama as a Jewish Democrat,” said State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Dist. 37). “I believe that all the Democrats will be coming home to the Democratic Party in November. Do I have Jewish friends and colleagues who are Republicans who will vote for John McCain? Yes, because that’s the party closest to their philosophy. But I am confident that the Democratic Party and Barack Obama will provide the leadership this country sorely needs. And regarding issues surrounding Israel, if I were not completely confident [in that area], I would not have supported Obama as early as I did.”

U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman (D-Dist. 9) acknowledged that “there is work to be done in New Jersey — frankly among some Jewish Democrats.”

But Rothman had a prediction.

“I believe that NJ Democrats will vote for Sen. Obama in the end over Sen. McCain in numbers very close to if not equal to our traditional level of support for Democratic presidential candidates,” he told NJJN.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), who has endorsed neither Democratic candidate, did not respond to a request for an interview.

Mark Alexander, a senior campaign adviser to Obama, said Jewish Democratic voters will unite around the candidate who represents their positions. Like Forman, he emphasized the similarities of Obama’s and Clinton’s positions as compared with McCain’s.

“Definitely, there has been talk lately about whether Jewish voters and donors will come on board,” said Alexander, a Seton Hall Law School professor and a Montclair resident. “But we constantly see support. And knowing the similarities [between Obama and Clinton] are extraordinary compared to what we’re seeing with John McCain, I’m very confident.”

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Kushner High students quiz adviser to Obama

Prof fields questions on Brzezinski, Iran at Orthodox school

A senior adviser to Barack Obama met with students at the Rae Kushner Yeshiva High School in Livingston last week, facing tough questions on the Democratic presidential hopeful and offering the students a pep talk on government service and political involvement.

Mark Alexander, a law professor at Seton Hall Law School in Newark, met with approximately 125 students, few of whom will be eligible to vote in next November’s election. They listened politely as Alexander encouraged them to serve and strive to accomplish things that other people say can’t happen.

The meeting was arranged by Rabbi Richard Kirsch, adviser to the school’s civics club. He was “very persistent,” according to Alexander. Kirsch said he is also reaching out to John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, and Hillary Clinton, in an effort to bring all of the candidates to the school.

“I believe you are being asked by your school to find ways to serve. You can serve here or in Israel, but you should find a way to do something,” said Alexander, a Montclair resident. “The point is that if you can do something to build up politics, democracy, and government — if you can do one thing, then you in fact can change the world.”

Although he did not venture deeply into specific policies during his talk, several students grilled Alexander both during a question-and-answer period and following his presentation on everything from Obama’s position on diplomacy toward Iran to the presence of former Carter administration official Zbigniew Brzezinski as an adviser to the Obama campaign.

Alexander said Brzezinski, described by some as anti-Israel, was not a lead policy adviser to Obama on questions of the Middle East.

“We do not seek nor go after his advice in the context of policy toward the Middle East,” said Alexander. “There are a lot of folks with a lot of experience offering advice. We take the advice and decide what to do.

“You have to have the backdrop of our very clear principles on Israel: We entirely respect the fact that Israel is one of our greatest allies in the world. We are committed to protecting the State of Israel.”

Alexander addressed Obama’s position on Iran: in favor of direct diplomacy with the country without specifying at what level.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad “is not someone whose perspective we agree with toward Israel,” Alexander said. “But we will not say we will never deal with people we do not agree with. We will engage people to find ways to move toward solutions. We will not reject the idea of having a conversation. And conversation with some leaders, or rather individuals, will be more difficult than others.”

Many of the students, like Andrew Israeli, 17, who supports presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, were not swayed by the talk.

“He acted like a typical politician and didn’t answer my questions,” said Israeli.

But others, like Jesse Marcus, 16, sporting an Obama T-shirt underneath his Oxford shirt, thought Alexander spoke “eloquently.” Marcus characterized his peers at the Orthodox day school as largely McCain supporters — “like their parents.”

In fact, several of the students said that while they are following the campaigns, they are less certain of their own opinions and were grateful to have the chance to hear from one of the candidates’ associates.

“I think it’s great to include the students in the political process,” said Daniel Spielman, 16, of Randolph.

Alexander acknowledged that though he had driven by the building many times, he had never before been inside the Kushner yeshiva.

He was struck, he told the students, “by one of the values implicit in the school: embracing responsibilities to the world around us. I believe we all have a responsibility to the world around us. We all have to find ways to serve. Here you are learning the importance of serving in so many different ways.

“I feel I am fortunate to serve my country by being part of this campaign for the presidency of the United States.”

Following the event, Alexander said he was impressed with the students, despite his disagreements on issues with some of them.

“It gives me optimism about how we’re doing in this country because I see engaged people, and that’s what we need,” he said. “We need people to be engaged and have open and honest conversations.”

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