by Dr. Gilbert N. Kahn

April 16, 2009

In a matter of 10 days, President Barack Obama found himself confronting precisely the type of foreign policy problems and crises that usually determine the success or failure of a presidency.

Even as they deal with the economic crisis and seek to implement an ambitious domestic program, the new team in Washington is now facing terrorists, radicals, and even pirates in several parts of the world: Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, the Mideast, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Somalia. Obama’s success will be measured by how he responds to the unexpected crises and confrontations.

Mini-crises today fall under the heading of lawlessness, mostly carried out by non-state actors. The president needs to build credibility and exhibit resolve and leadership here, if he will have any success tackling the major problems.

The U.S. Navy Seals’ rescue of Captain Richard Phillips from the pirates operating off the Somali coast seemed straight out of a too-good-to-be-true B movie. In global terms, however, this was a quick, decisive play designed by the Navy and approved by the president. Regardless of the backlash from African states or from other nations that also have prisoners being held by pirates, the administration sent a clear message that it was ready to act in America’s interest and to protect American citizens and deal with the consequences later.

If the president succeeds in creating a multilateral sea patrol off the Horn of Africa, it will be seen as capstone to Sunday’s heroics, but it is not essential. Should he fall victim to those who will second guess his actions because of concern for the fate of the hostage takers, the president could be trapped into showing equal sympathy for criminals (pirates) as he did for victims (hostages).

The rescue sets the stage for the president to engage some of the other immediate “mini-crises”:

• Will the president succeed in obtaining the release of Iranian-American Roxana Saberi, who has been imprisoned in Iran for over two months on charges ranging from illegally purchasing wine to spying for the CIA? If this is seen as the Iranian response to the public initiative made by the Obama team on the occasion of the Persian New Year, then an inability to obtain Saberi’s release quickly could be seen as weakness on their part.

• The premature exposure by MI5 of an apparent Pakistani terrorist ring operating in Manchester, England, reminded many Americans that the administration is likely to face some direct test from Al Qaida, and not only against the U.S. military.

• The rioting that closed down the Asian Conference in Thailand last weekend indicates the extent to which people in the street can take control of events. The protesters said they were acting in anger at worsening economic conditions and demanded the return of the old regime. Given the growth of Muslim fundamentalism in Thailand, there is every reason as well to be leery of a possible dramatic, Al Qaida-sponsored explosion occurring next in Asia.

• And then there’s Pakistan: With the Taliban controlling larger and larger areas of Afghani-Pakistani territory, the chances of suicide bombings and other attacks against Americans and fears of Pakistani nukes getting into the wrong hands might constitute Obama’s most formidable challenge.

How President Obama responds to these and other possible confrontations — largely with non-state actors — is the key to how effectively he will be able to lead and govern during the next four years. It will be the measure of his presidency, more so than whether the United States will eliminate the contamination and racism that are at work in the UN Human Rights Council or will boycott Durban II or will lean on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he arrives in Washington next month.

This week, it appears that he handled his first confrontation with the Somali pirates well. Responses to similar crises will demonstrate the will, the style, and the strategies of Obama in confronting protracted international confrontations on a larger scale. This will be a test for the new foreign policy team not only regarding its friends and allies, but its adversaries. It will also be a measure for the American people as they evaluate this new Washington team.

Dr. Gilbert N. Kahn is a professor of political science at Kean University in Union (gkahn@kean.edu).

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