New Jersey Jewish News
Commentary
The Israeli elections: See Ehud run and run
The one thing that is clear in watching the Israeli election
campaign unfold is how hard acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is running. In every democratic election campaign, politicians aspiring to lead their country always engage in a sprint to the finish line, making sure that all the fans watching have something to cheer about. All candidates want to please their supporters as they continue to expand their base while not losing any backers to their rivals. For Ehud Olmert, this particular campaign appears to be a three-month marathon — one he seems most likely to win, but with a very unclear level of public support.
Even before Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s incapacity, Olmert received the second position on the brand new Kadima Party list only as a result of some last-minute jostling between himself, Shaul Mofaz, and Tzipi Livni. He became Sharon’s heir apparent by accident — and only later by a vote of the party. As Kadima seeks a dominant role in the new Knesset following elections on March 28, Olmert is already discovering that regardless of what he hopes to accomplish in his term in office, he needs to set up an environment within which he will be able to maximize his party’s victory. Olmert’s electoral strategy appears set to minimize support from opposition parties, thereby reducing the number of parties he will need to include in his governing coalition.
Olmert is playing a balancing act between the Left and the Right, the peace camp and the hawks, and the former Laborites and Likudniks. It won’t be easy. Take Tzahi Hanegbi, a former Likud member who joined Kadima and now sits under the cloud of a legal indictment on a variety of campaign violations. When Olmert rejected the attorney general’s recommendation that Hanegbi be removed from his position as minister without portfolio, it was perfectly legal yet clearly meant to appease Olmert’s Likud supporters.
“Perfectly legal yet clearly political” also describes the removal of the illegal settlements in Amona. In this case, Olmert did not consult in any significant way with settler leaders and reportedly did not allow for adequate preparation by the military and police authorities before they were ordered to move in to remove the settlers. At least some of the 200 injuries in the confrontation, as well as the angry fallout, might have been avoided had Olmert taken his time and the settlers’ counsel. Yet Olmert needed to assure the Left he would obey the law and would not demonstrate any weakness toward the nationalist camp.
Olmert’s political vulnerability has been especially noticeable in his conduct toward the Bush administration before and since the Hamas election. The White House is clearly in the driver’s seat due to Olmert’s vulnerability and greenness. Olmert’s insistence that Hamas respond to Israel’s threefold demand to recognize the State of Israel, control and disarm terrorist groups, and accept past peace agreements, all suggest a decision by the acting prime minister to demonstrate to Washington — as well as to his right-wing elements — that he will continue a hard-line policy against the Palestinians.
This has been evident specifically in the “alleged” joint agreement to try to pressure Hamas to force the Palestinians to push for new elections. It also has been manifested in Olmert’s quick decision to not even consider a further, temporary, partial delivery of Palestinian tax money.
Amid these political and diplomatic pressures, Olmert is also feeling the need to address his own personal, questionable financial dealings. Olmert has been called to respond to the disclosure that American billionaire Daniel Abraham had purchased Olmert’s apartment and subsequently arranged to rent it back to Olmert for six years. While the deal seems at worst a borderline case of financial back-scratching, Olmert faces an Israeli press with a long track record of hounding public figures over ethical and financial breaches.
Polls say Kadima is likely to win 40 seats or so, but the character and breadth of this support is unknown. How much support will Olmert generate? How much enthusiasm can he provide? Does he have the ability to lead, and do his supporters have confidence in his ability to govern? In the current climate and with his questionable track record — especially in security matters — Olmert faces a major challenge to turn around the Israeli public in the midst of a campaign. Should he fail to do so, Olmert and the Israeli people may well be going back to the polls much sooner than later.
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