Coalition governments traditionally suffer from at least one of two major problems. They either lack a strong leader to head the coalition or are plagued by fractious political parties, which make it virtually impossible to govern. In any case, the governments either regularly break up and reconstitute themselves or go to general elections. The only alternative for leaders desperate to hold onto power is to cut deals with friends and rivals alike.

This condition was known as immobilisme in the Third and Fourth French Republics until Charles DeGaulle came to power in 1958 and revised the French Constitution. Today, with a political system that has virtually no possibility of being reformed in the near future, Israel is deep in the throes of immobilisme at a time when the nation is facing major political crises.

Even setting aside the air of corruption and scandal surrounding key Israeli leaders, the current Olmert-led government is rapidly moving onto life support. The wheels of government may be spinning, but there is no political creativity or imagination being exhibited by those in charge.

Ehud Olmert continues to appear to be the obedient child to a frightfully incompetent U.S. leadership in Washington. At the recently completed Herzliya Conference, Israel’s annual policy gathering on national security, presenter after presenter suggested that Israel is showing minimal independence on the international stage, especially with respect to Syria. While Israel’s alliances with the United States and other allies are important, the Olmert government should be operating in a far more independent and proactive manner.

There is virtually no downside for Israel to engage the Syrians in direct discussions. Even if such discussions prove to be fruitless, the possibility that Israel might achieve some movement in its relationship with the Assad government argues overwhelmingly in favor of trying to open a “no preconditions” dialogue. But as long as the Bush administration remains unwilling to open a channel of communication with a country it regards as “responsible for creating chaos” in the Middle East, Olmert feels constrained not to step out on his own.

Similarly, the United States has transparently orchestrated all the recent actions taken by the Olmert government toward the Palestinians. The tendentious behavior of the Olmert coalition makes it virtually impossible for it to develop an independent course of action toward the Palestinians. The festering Gaza situation, the failure to develop an imaginative approach to dealing with Hamas, and the persistent reliance on tired slogans in dealing with the extremists suggests that this government is merely biding its time.

Meanwhile, most of the major Israeli political parties will hold their elections in the spring. The Likud will overwhelmingly vote to bring back Benjamin Netanyahu. Labor will reject its current leader, Amir Peretz, and appears prepared to turn over the leadership of the party to former Prime Minister Ehud Barak or, if he’s rejected, Knesset Member Ami Ayalon, a former chief of the Shin Bet.

The key to the survival of the current coalition, however, is the Kadima Party election. Olmert will have to defend his performance against an expected challenge from Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. Should he fail to retain control of his party, general elections may indeed follow shortly thereafter. If Livni wins, there could be a new coalition lineup with Olmert dropped completely or replaced. Livni would then have a chance to build a viable coalition. Alternatively, a new prime minister could threaten coalition partners with a potential loss of power if they vote to let the government fall. No matter their disagreements with the premier, politicians strive to maintain power and influence at all costs. (An interesting new Livni government might put Barak in the Defense Ministry with perhaps Kadima member and former Shin Bet head Avi Dichter as foreign minister.)

Israel, meanwhile, awaits the report of the Winograd Commission on the government’s conduct of the Lebanon war, and the handing down of more indictments against ethically challenged politicians. Also on the horizon: a Washington meeting of the “Quartet” that will jump-start nothing, fighting between Hamas and Fatah that will lead to an upsurge of attacks against Israel (as just happened in Eilat), and the 10,000-pound Iranian elephant dancing in the waiting room.

Israel’s existence is not being threatened, certainly not at this moment, but immobilisme is unacceptable. Given his abysmal ranking in opinion polls and the tentative nature of his governing, it is time that Olmert and the current coalition be replaced before many of Israel’s international as well as domestic problems go from critical to perilous.