January 24, 2008
During Tuesday’s primary in Florida, all four leading Republican hopefuls will vie head-to-head for the largest group of delegates so far. All are looking for a victory there to launch them ahead of the pack going into the Feb. 5 Tsunami Tuesday, when more than 20 states are holding primaries, including delegate-rich New York, New Jersey, California, and Illinois.
The Florida contest will also be the first where the Jewish vote can make a difference. Jews are estimated to be only 3 percent of registered Republicans in the state. But with four Republicans in a statistical dead heat, they could constitute a decisive swing vote.
(The Democratic primary the same day is overshadowed because no delegates are at stake and the candidates aren’t campaigning there.)
There is no crossover voting in Florida’s winner-take-all contest, and that’s bad news for John McCain, whose strength has been independent and Democratic votes in open GOP primaries. But he also has some important advantages.
In meetings with Jewish leaders during a brief trip to South Florida last week, I heard frequently that McCain was a heavy favorite in their communities, and that the endorsement of U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) solidified that support. McCain is counting on Lieberman, a Democrat turned independent, to bring out not only the Jewish vote but also desperately needed campaign contributions.
The Arizonan’s main competitor is Rudy Giuliani, who in early polls led in Jewish backing and fund-raising. Recent surveys, however, including my own unscientific sampling, suggest Hizzoner is fading.
Many see him in the same light as Mitt Romney — an ambitious opportunist with few real convictions who will tell you what he thinks you want to hear.
Rudy has bet all his chips on Florida; to paraphrase his hometown song, if he can’t make it there, he can’t make it anywhere. A poor showing in the Sunshine State could sap what’s left of his campaign’s momentum and dry up its fund-raising.
Then there’s Romney, the man who hates Washington so much he is willing to spend his fortune just so he can move to a city he admits he doesn’t understand but wants to “fix.”
If any candidate symbolizes change this year, it is Romney, but not in the way he claims. The former Massachusetts governor is the ultimate public policy chameleon, shifting positions to fit his surroundings. He once claimed to be more pro-gay rights than Ted Kennedy and now sounds more like the Rev. Pat Robertson. He’s been on all sides of issues like abortion rights, gay rights, environmental protection, gun control, and immigration.
Romney’s a bit like the Florida weather. If you don’t like his position on something, just stick around a while and it will change. And that is what most worries many Republican voters. Will he make another U-turn and head back to the center if he gets the nomination?
His religion remains an issue for some voters, especially Evangelicals who consider Mormonism a cult, but there’s no evidence it makes any difference to Jewish voters.
The difference between Romney and Giuliani is Rudy doesn’t change positions so much as embrace both sides simultaneously.
Hizzoner says he supports abortion rights and gay rights but promises to appoint only “strict constructionist” — code for antiabortion, anti-gay — judges. He believes in the sanctity of the Second Amendment and in gun control; he loved Nixon but voted for George McGovern; he was a tough law-and-order prosecutor and mayor but hadn’t a clue his own top cop and close buddy was dirty.
McCain is no stranger to change, either. He earned his maverick spurs in 2000 by denouncing the same televangelists — “agents of intolerance” — he’s been pandering to since launching his current presidential bid. He even revealed that he’d switched churches from Episcopal to Baptist and cited the founding fathers in claiming “this is a Christian nation.”
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee may be the ultimate change candidate since he wants to amend the Constitution to meet “God’s standards,” presumably as interpreted by the Pastor Huckabee. After telling that to evangelical audiences he tried to convince a New York Jewish Week reporter that he was “not suggesting that we rewrite the Constitution,” but that’s exactly what he wants to do.
Not surprisingly, he hasn’t done well getting votes outside the evangelical community; Jewish Republicans say his nomination could trigger the biggest-ever Democratic landslide among Jewish voters.
Rare is the Republican who has anything nice to say about the head of his party; even faint expressions of support are shadowed by criticism. But while the Republican hopefuls say they want to change the country, many voters are asking when they’ll stop changing their minds.